- by 横川光恵
- 2025年10月16日
Gambling Myths Debunked: How Progressive Jackpots Actually Work
Hold on — that shiny jackpot number isn’t a promise. It’s a promise baked into math, not magic.
Here’s the practical bit up front: progressive jackpots grow because multiple bets feed a single pot; your chance of winning is tiny, so the jackpot’s size doesn’t make the bet “fairer” in a single spin. If you want to judge value, break the jackpot into its expected-value (EV) contribution and add it to the base game EV. Do that, and you’ll see whether chasing a huge figure is rational or emotional.
Quick primer — what people get wrong immediately
Wow. So many assumptions start here. Players assume big jackpot = good odds. That’s the first myth.
Progressives are simply pools funded by a tiny slice of each bet. The mechanics differ — networked vs local, meter vs fixed trigger, slot vs jackpot-linked table game — but the funding idea is the same: a percentage of coin-in increases the pot until a win condition is met.
At the player level, three numbers matter: the jackpot size (J), the probability of hitting it on a single bet (p), and the base game return (R_base). EV contribution from the jackpot equals J × p. Add that to R_base to get the theoretical EV for that bet.
So, a $1,000,000 jackpot with p = 0.000001 contributes about $1 to EV. That’s not nothing — but it’s smaller than most players intuitively expect.
Types of progressive jackpots — short checklist
- Local (standalone): only bets on a single machine or in a single venue feed the pot.
- Linked/networked: many machines across venues (or an entire operator) share the same pool, so the jackpot grows quicker and becomes larger.
- Meter/seeded: some operators seed the pot initially; publicised seed can be marketing but doesn’t change p or the funding rate.
- Random vs skill-triggered: slots are random; some poker/skill-linked jackpots tie payouts to specific outcomes or bonus features.
How the money flows — a simple model (and a worked example)
Hold on — the bookkeeping is simple in concept. A small take (t) from each wager goes to the progressive pool; most of the rest funds normal payouts.
Let’s do numbers. Suppose:
- Machine bet size: $1
- Take to progressive: 1% (t = $0.01 per spin)
- Base RTP of the slot (without jackpot): 95% (R_base = $0.95 per $1 spin)
- Jackpot size: J = $500,000
- Estimated chance to hit jackpot on any eligible spin: p = 0.0000008 (1 in 1.25M)
EV_jackpot = J × p = $500,000 × 0.0000008 = $0.40
Total theoretical EV = R_base + EV_jackpot − t (if t is already subtracted from base RTP, don’t double-count). If R_base already excludes the progressive slice, add EV_jackpot: 0.95 + 0.40 = $1.35 (this is an illustrative model; real machines handle accounting differently).
On the face of it, a $1 bet yielding $1.35 EV would look terrific — but be cautious: the advertised R_base numbers and internal mechanics vary and p is almost never published. Operators rarely release the actual hit frequency for the top prize.
Mini-case: local pub progressive vs national link
Case A: A local $50k progressive at your neighbourhood club — only ten machines feed it. J grows slowly and is likely to be won relatively often. The p is higher (winning occurs more frequently) but J is smaller.
Case B: A national link with a $2M meter across 3,000 machines. J grows fast and becomes huge, but p is tiny — wins are rare. Your EV_jackpot per bet may still be comparable to Case A depending on contribution rates and number of plays.
The takeaway: bigger pot ≠ better EV per spin automatically. You need p and t to judge value — both are usually hidden.
Common myths debunked
- Myth: “The jackpot is ‘due’ so it’s due for a win.” — False. Random systems (RNG) do not carry memory; unless there’s an engineered mechanism, a machine isn’t more likely because a large pot exists. The only exception is when hit frequency is tied to cumulative coin-in thresholds (some progressives use this), in which case outcomes are not purely memoryless.
- Myth: “I should always play max bet to qualify.” — Sometimes true. Many progressives require maximum stake to be eligible for the top prize. But that increases variance and bankroll demands. Calculate whether the EV premium for max betting outweighs the extra cost.
- Myth: “Linked jackpots are scams because they never hit.” — Not true. Networked jackpots can and do hit; they just do so less frequently. Transparency about contribution rates and hit frequency varies by jurisdiction and operator.
Common mistakes and how to avoid them
- Ignoring the math: Don’t chase a meter without estimating EV_jackpot = J × p. If p is unknown, assume it’s extremely small and judge conservatively.
- Over-betting to chase status: Only bet maximum if the additional EV (from becoming eligible) justifies the larger stake. If you double your bet to chase a marginal EV lift, your bankroll volatility rises significantly.
- Confusing publicity with advantage: Marketing often highlights seeded amounts or recent winners. Those don’t change the underlying long-term house edge.
- Skipping terms and conditions: Jackpot payouts, tax rules, verification, and eligibility (age, jurisdiction) all live in T&Cs. Read them before you wager big.
How operators set hit frequency and what regulators expect
On the operational side, regulated operators must balance the pool growth rate and hit frequency to maintain solvency and comply with local laws. In Australia, bookmakers and betting services are subject to state regulators such as the Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission and federal rules under the Interactive Gambling Act (refer to Sources).
Systems often use hidden counters or RNG thresholds to determine top-prize hits; that’s legal if documented and compliant. Regulators typically require reporting, independent testing, and transparency around player protections.
Practical decision rule for a beginner
- Check whether max bet is required for the jackpot. If yes, calculate how much bankroll it demands for a reasonable session.
- Estimate EV_jackpot conservatively. If p is unknown, assume p ≈ 1 / (coin-in required to fund jackpot × average bet share). Use a low EV estimate.
- Decide stake by bankroll fraction (e.g., no more than 1–2% of your gambling bank per spin if you’re chasing variance-heavy outcomes).
- Use the operator’s responsible gambling tools (deposit limits, session timers, self-exclusion) — make them active before you play.
Comparison table: progressive approaches
| Approach | Typical Jackpot Size | Hit Frequency | Player Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Local standalone | Small–Medium | Higher | Lower variance; more frequent wins; smaller EV_jackpot per bet |
| Linked/networked | Large–Very large | Low | Huge swings; rare wins; EV_jackpot can be meaningful but unpredictable |
| Seeded meter | Medium (plus seed) | Variable | Seed is marketing; evaluate based on contribution rate and rules |
| Event/skill-triggered | Variable | Depends on skill/outcomes | Player skill can influence outcomes; treat separately from random RNG progressives |
Where to find reliable info and one practical suggestion
Here’s a sound tactic for newcomers: look for a licensed, well-regulated operator and check their RTP and T&Cs before you play. Some newer Australian wagering platforms provide clear odds pages and help tools for players. If you want to explore a sign-up offer or see current market promotions, check the operator’s site for verified incentives — for example, you can visit claim bonus to view current bookmaker promotions and responsible gaming tools (remember to be signed-in to see personalised offers).
Be careful: promotional credits may carry wagering conditions or market restrictions. Read the small print.
Mini-FAQ
Q: Does a bigger jackpot improve my chances?
A: No. The jackpot amount does not change your hit probability on any single random spin. It only increases the EV contribution proportionally if p stays the same — but p is generally minute for large-linked progressives.
Q: Should I always play max bet?
A: Only if the jackpot’s rules require it and the EV lift justifies the extra stake. If max bet blows your bankroll or increases risk beyond acceptable limits, don’t do it. Consider smaller sessions or wait for a promotion that offsets the cost.
Q: Are progressive jackpots taxable in Australia?
A: For most recreational players in Australia, gambling winnings are not taxed. Professional gambling income can be taxed, depending on circumstances. Check with a tax adviser for your personal situation.
Q: How do I manage my risk chasing jackpots?
A: Set deposit and session limits, use self-exclusion if needed, and never stake more than a small percentage of your gambling bankroll on high-variance plays. Use operator tools and national registers like BetStop if you need help.
18+ only. Gambling can be harmful — if you think you have a problem, contact Gambling Help Online (1800 858 858) or use operator self-exclusion tools. Operators in Australia follow KYC and AML rules; expect identity checks before withdrawals and the ability to set deposit limits and self-exclude.
Final echo — a practical mindset
To be honest, chasing a glowing jackpot is fun. That thrill is real. But pairing that emotion with a simple EV check and strict bankroll rules keeps the fun sustainable. On the one hand, progressives offer rare outsized wins; on the other, the math often favours the house. Balance curiosity with calculation, and you’ll play smarter rather than just louder.
Sources
- https://www.acma.gov.au
- https://www.vgccc.vic.gov.au
- https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au
About the Author
Alex Turner, iGaming expert. Alex has worked with Australasian wagering platforms and independent punters on odds analysis and responsible-play programs; he combines industry experience with a practical, maths-first approach to recreational gambling.